Analysts said the 2016 presidential contest was decided on the hopes of forgotten rural rustbelt voters and a desire for an outsider. A clearer explanation points to the presence of popular 3rd party candidates in the swing states and the durability of partisanship. In 2020, partisanship, the economy, COVID-19 and a Supreme Court vacancy appeared as leading factors influencing presidential vote choice—while crime, immigration, unorthodox leadership, guns, Kamala Harris, Biden’s family, USPS, tell-all books and Trump’s taxes seemed unlikely to alter the minds of undecided voters. In this lecture, we’ll identify the most important aspects of the campaign as well as events that had little bearing on the election.
